Morgan Stanley: 드러켄밀러의 Hard Lessons — 소스 1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pk4eBDaLA 링크: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pk4eBDaLA

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• [[260301_5857_Morgan_Stanley_드러켄밀러의_Hard_Les]] (원본 노트)

Hard Lessons: Stan Druckenmiller: Invest, then investigate

채널: Morgan Stanley 링크: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pk4eBDaLA

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[0:00] I think contrarianism is overrated. I do [0:03] like it when I have extreme conviction [0:05] and no one else believes it. It gives me [0:07] even more conviction. [0:09] [music] [0:10] From Morgan Stanley, this is Hard [0:12] Lessons, where iconic investors reveal [0:15] the critical moments that have shaped [0:16] who they are today. [music] [0:19] Today on the show, the legendary macro [0:21] investor Stan Denmiller in conversation [0:24] with Ilana Bousali, Morgan Stanley's [0:26] global head of derivatives, [0:28] distribution, and structuring. Draen [0:30] Miller ran Dane Capital Management with [0:32] roughly 30% annualized returns and no [0:35] losing years from 1981 to 2010. He now [0:38] leads the Dain family office, managing [0:40] his own capital, and as a philanthropist [0:42] [music] championing education, medical [0:44] research, and the fight against poverty. [0:47] Stan, thank you very much for doing [0:49] this. [0:50] >> I'm thrilled to be here. I think the [0:51] world of Morgan Stanley, so it's the [0:53] least I can do. [0:54] >> Oh, that is a that's a privilege for us [0:57] to have you here. I've been privy to [0:58] some of your equity trades over the past [1:01] year or so where it did feel you were [1:03] early. And I'm curious if you can maybe [1:07] take us through one or two and how they [1:10] came together. I'll pick one that might [1:13] surprise you because it's not very sexy [1:15] and it's not AI or anything, but it I [1:19] think it's a good example of our process [1:21] at Dukane. In the middle of last summer [1:24] and toward the fall, the AI things [1:27] started to get, let me say, disturbingly [1:30] heated [1:31] >> and started at least have some rhyme [1:35] with what I went through in 99 2000. [1:38] and we were looking for other areas. The [1:43] group brought in a company um Teva [1:45] Pharmaceuticals. [1:47] So Teva [1:49] was this apparently, if you didn't know [1:52] what was going on, boring um generic [1:55] drug company out of Israel selling at [1:58] six times earnings. [2:00] So we met with the company, big [2:03] transition going on. uh Richard Francis [2:06] had come in who ran the same playbook at [2:08] Sandos very impressed with them knew how [2:11] to take lowhanging fruit in terms of [2:12] operating efficiency but much more [2:15] importantly he was taking them from a [2:18] generic drug company to a growth company [2:22] by embracing biosimilars replacing the [2:26] the generic drugs which that's why they [2:30] were six times earnings with bioimilars [2:33] and even some some actual ual drugs. The [2:36] amazing thing is the investor base were [2:40] value investors. So they hated it. So [2:44] the stock sat there at six times [2:46] earnings while you could see this [2:48] incredible management initiative going [2:51] on. And no one really believed him and [2:54] again growth investors didn't want it [2:57] because Anne made the transition yet. [2:59] Value investors didn't want it and were [3:01] actually selling it because they he was [3:03] doing a growth strategy. [3:05] So that was about six or seven months [3:07] ago and the stock was 16 and today it's [3:11] 32 and not much has happened other than [3:14] he's proved biosimilars they've come up [3:17] with a drug that's not a generic so it's [3:19] rerated from six times earnings to I [3:23] guess 11 and a half or 12 times [3:24] earnings. So it was a whole different [3:29] set of circumstances but encapsulates [3:31] what we look at. If you look at today, [3:34] you're not going to make any money. If [3:36] you try and look ahead and what might [3:39] change and how investors might perceive [3:41] something ahead, this one happened a [3:44] little more quicker than I thought, but [3:46] that would be a recent name. [3:48] >> Fascinating and very intriguing. [3:52] I say it's intriguing because I think [3:56] many people maybe people not in the [3:59] market but certainly many people when [4:01] they think of Stan Draen Miller they [4:04] think of huge macro investor [4:07] and [4:09] I have seen you dabble [4:12] more than double really go into areas of [4:15] the market especially in equities that [4:17] are much more niche [4:19] such as healthcare or biotech [4:22] And my question is, do you have to be an [4:26] expert, an analyst, someone that [4:28] understands the whole pipeline of drugs [4:31] to get that right? [4:33] >> Thank God the answer is an emphatic no. [4:37] But I've got to have an expert at Dukane [4:40] who is and trust his judgment. And then [4:43] I've got to have a feel for how the [4:46] market will embrace the change he's [4:49] describing. [4:50] But we we did make a big move into [4:53] biotech. I could sense [4:56] that there was a potential leadership [4:59] change just because of the phobia around [5:02] AI. And I knew because I've been on the [5:06] board of Memorial Sloan Ketering for 30 [5:09] years that probably the best use case [5:12] out there of AI is biotech through drug [5:16] discovery, diagnostics, monitoring, [5:19] everything. So biotech had been on its [5:23] butt for like four years. I also grew up [5:28] with technical analysis and you could [5:30] see the momentum changing. [5:32] So that was the theory behind biotech. [5:35] But honestly, when when the analysts [5:38] start talking about genetic sequencing [5:41] and gene editing and proteins, it's [5:44] going right over Stan's head. But um I [5:48] get their level of enthusiasm. We have a [5:50] very good biotech team. That's really [5:53] important because I trust them and when [5:57] they're really enthusiastic, that's as [5:59] important to me as the actual facts cuz [6:02] I'm not smart enough to understand a lot [6:04] of the actual facts. [6:05] >> So, you filter [6:07] not just the data, but the people that [6:11] work for you. [6:12] >> My advantage [6:14] is not IQ, it's trigger pulling. I I [6:16] admit it's some kind of intelligence, [6:19] but mother-in-law says I'm an idiot [6:21] soant. Um I wasn't in the top 10% of my [6:24] class. A lot of people think I'm smarter [6:26] than I am cuz I' I'm good at our [6:28] business, but I have a very narrow form [6:31] of intelligence that allows me to love [6:34] and play this game. [6:39] I know many people [music] [6:41] who would love to get inside your head [6:45] and understand your mental models. You [6:49] spoke to us about your way of thinking [6:53] and I have a really honest basic [6:56] question. [6:58] How much of it can be taught and how [7:01] much of it is innate? [7:03] >> Look, I I was given a gift. I don't know [7:07] why I was given the gift, but I have [7:09] this gift and it's for compounding [7:12] money. Certainly part of is innate. You [7:15] either have the skill set for this [7:17] business or you don't. Having said that, [7:21] I had a great mentor in Pittsburgh when [7:23] I started out and I find it very common [7:28] that great investors [7:30] have incredible mentors. So to me it's a [7:35] necessary condition that you have sort [7:37] of this innate skill set or gift, but [7:41] it's almost a necessary condition on top [7:44] of it that you have a mentor. I'm sure [7:48] there's some people out there that [7:49] that's not true of but for me it was a [7:53] combination. I was very lucky to have [7:56] two mentors. one, I basically learned [7:59] all the kind of stuff we're talking [8:00] about. And then Soros, it's funny, when [8:03] I went there, I thought I would learn [8:04] what makes the yen and the mark go up [8:06] and move. And modestly, I learned I knew [8:08] much more about that than he did. What I [8:11] learned from him was sizing. It's not [8:12] whether you're right or wrong, it's how [8:14] much you make when you're right and how [8:15] much you lose when you're wrong. And [8:17] that was an that was an invaluable [8:19] lesson. So you can have something [8:22] innate, but if you don't have mentors [...] (트랜스크립트 8000자 제한으로 잘림)