The Hormuz energy shock and its impact on Asia. (Morgan Stanley)
M Idea
March 13, 2026 06:44 PM GMT
Energy | Asia Pacific
Assessing Stress in Asia
Asia has not seen an energy access shock in 50 years. Stresses are emerging in multiple Asian economies and industries as the shock wave travels, with repercussions that could broaden and affect equities outside energy. We assess the stress if limited access to energy were to last longer.
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+
Mayank Maheshwari Equity Analyst
[email protected]
+65 6834-6719
Vivek Rajamani Equity Analyst
[email protected]
+65 6834-6740
Ryan M Heng Research Associate
[email protected]
+65 6834-6465
ASEAN Energy and Materials
Asia Pacific Industry View
Attractive
While oil prices have hovered around $100/bbl, underlying stresses in energy
markets and access to energy are emerging: These are not limited just to fuel
supply, natural gas, and chemicals – they are broadening to equity multiples in food
Exhibit 1 : Assessing Stress: Duration of
disruption can make energy systems in
Taiwan, India, Thailand, and the Philippines
delivery, ceramics, renewable energy, solar glass, and tile manufacturing. Investor
vulnerable
questions are increasingly focused on understanding the impact on energy, food,
automobile, and semiconductor supply chains.
Underlying challenges in energy markets are appearing. Dubai crude, which is
normally at a $2/bbl discount to Brent, is now trading at a $20+/bbl premium.
Diesel margins are at record highs, 2x higher than before the Middle East conflict.
The jet fuel premium over diesel has expanded 3x. Sulphur supply (prices up 20%) is
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
affecting both nickel production and semiconductor costs. Helium spot prices have
risen ~50%. Plastic/ synthetic rubber prices used in automobiles have shown 30-
Exhibit 2 : Assessing supply chain stress:
50% gross margin expansion as a tenth of global production capacity in Korea,
Multiple industries/food supply chain with
Singapore, and Taiwan is curtailing production owing to shortages of feedstock –
direct and second derivative impact from
naphtha and propane.
How long can we depend upon inventories? Asia has ~65-70 days of crude
inventories and Russian crude access is supportive, but fuel price caps and export
controls are leading
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