AMR — Alpha Metallurgical Resources / Watch

판단

AMR은 pure-play U.S. metallurgical coal beta다. 2026-04-17 종가 US$191.70, 4주 -1.0%, YTD -5.6%. Forward P/E 7.1x는 낮아 보이나 EV/EBITDA 15.1x, TTM EBITDA US$137M, Q4 영업적자를 같이 봐야 한다. 목표가 framework는 Bull US$285 / Base US$220 / Bear US$145, 확률가중 US$219(+14%).

경영진·어닝콜

CEO Andy Eidson, CFO Todd Munsey, COO Jason Whitehead.
Eidson은 약한 met price와 cost improvement를 동시에 강조.
Q4 net loss US$17.3M, Adjusted EBITDA US$28.5M, operating cash flow US$19.0M, capex US$29.0M, tons sold 3.8Mt.

파이프라인

Northern/Central Appalachia met coal complex와 Dominion Terminal Associates interest. 신규 mega-project보다 기존 mine cost curve 개선과 domestic commitments가 핵심. 2026 domestic commitments 4.1Mt at US$136.30/t.

Catalyst

2026-05-08 Q1 실적.
Low-vol index 개선의 realized price 반영.
Domestic committed tons 추가.
Cost/t 개선.
Buyback pace.

Counter

Q4 operating income -US$21.3M, net loss US$17.3M. Pure met coal volatility가 크며, 현재 run-rate earnings로는 비싸다.

원본 링크

V11 PDF: [[260420_석탄_RE-APPROACH_V11.pdf]]
cowork 원본: /Users/ron/knowledge-agent/cowork/coal-report-apr20/04-company-update_expanded.md