CNR — Core Natural Resources / Watch

판단

CNR은 Arch+CONSOL 합병 후의 통합 coal platform이다. 2026-04-17 종가 US$85.97, 4주 -19.8%, YTD -4.4%. Forward P/E 11.2x, EV/EBITDA 10.9x. 목표가 framework는 Bull US$125 / Base US$98 / Bear US$65, 확률가중 US$96(+12%).

경영진·어닝콜

• CEO Jimmy A. Brock, President & CFO Mitesh Thakkar.
• Q4 call의 핵심은 Leer South/West Elk 정상화, merger synergy, shareholder return.
• Q4 net loss US$79.0M, adjusted EBITDA US$103.1M, operating cash flow US$107.3M, FCF US$27.0M.

파이프라인

Leer South, West Elk, Pennsylvania Mining Complex, Baltimore export logistics, Arch legacy met assets. 2025년 Leer South fire/idle cost, West Elk transition, Baltimore bridge disruption이 숫자를 왜곡했다.

Catalyst

1. 2026-05-07 Q1 실적.
2. Leer South/West Elk 정상 production.
3. Merger synergy와 SG&A normalization.
4. Insurance recovery/one-off costs 소멸.
5. U.S. coal export policy와 domestic coal fleet 지원.

Counter

BTU/WHC보다 싸지 않고, 아직 “좋아졌다”는 분기 숫자가 부족하다. Integration risk와 leadership transition risk가 남아 있다.

원본 링크

• V11 PDF: [[260420_석탄_RE-APPROACH_V11.pdf]]
• cowork 원본: /Users/ron/knowledge-agent/cowork/coal-report-apr20/04-company-update_expanded.md